CoreLogic Monthly Property & Economic Update for June 2017
This monthly report created by the CoreLogic NZ Research Team covers the main economic factors that influence the housing market, and then looks at sales volumes, values, and active buyer types in both the national and main centre housing markets.
Some highlights of the June – July 2017 report:
- Migration – We have started to once again experience a net loss of Kiwis to Australia, but this is unlikely to return to previous high levels of loss.
- Building Consents – These have trended down right across the country in recent months, which is the last thing we need when our housing shortage continues to grow.
- Consumer confidence – remains positive as people feel good about both current and future economic conditions.
- Sales volumes – bounced back up from a very low April, but are weaker than last year across the whole country, especially in the North.
- Market activity – this continues to slide downwards and is now well below the same time last year. This will translate into far fewer active buyers in the market over coming months.
- Listings – New listings are at normal seasonal levels, but the lack of sales means that the total stock of properties on the market is much higher in Auckland than the same time last year. More choice along with fewer active buyers means far less reason for prices to rise. Meanwhile total listings continue to drop in Wellington and Dunedin which means it is still tough for buyers.
- Buyer Classification – the share of sales to investors has risen in many areas, but given that the overall number of sales has dropped almost everywhere, sales to investors, particularly those needing a mortgage, has actually dropped dramatically. But this drop in investor activity has come at a cost with first home buyers at record low numbers in Auckland.
- Values – Auckland and Christchurch values continue to slowly decline, Hamilton is flat, while the rate of increase in Tauranga and Wellington is now much slower than last year.
- Outlook – Falling demand will lead to falling sales. Meanwhile total listings will rise leading to more buyer choice. With uncertainty about what polices on migration and housing will result from the upcoming election in September, it is likely that the current market weakness will persist through until after the election result is known. Strap yourselves in for a slow winter in the property market!
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